[Webinar Recording] Investment and Policy Insights in Carbon Markets across the Global South

Earlier this week, we co-hosted a webinar with Calculus Carbon exploring the latest data and insights on investment, risk, and policy developments in carbon markets across the Global South. The webinar combined AlliedOffsets’ data-driven overview of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) with Calculus Carbon’s case studies on how capital is being structured and deployed across nature-based projects.

Didn't get the chance to join live? Watch the full webinar below and download the slides.

AlliedOffsets & Calculus Carbon Webinar Recording

Market trends in the Global South

The Global South remains the beating heart of the voluntary carbon market. AlliedOffsets’ data shows that:

• Around 85% of all projects in our dataset are located in the Global South.

• 521 projects have received Core Carbon Principles (CCP) approval, underscoring the region’s growing focus on integrity.

• Issuances are down ~33% year-on-year, while retirements are up 3.8%, reaching approximately 39 million credits in 2025 so far. 

• Forward purchasing continues to scale: around 1.4 billion credits across project sectors are now under offtake agreements in the region.

These figures highlight a tightening supply environment, increasing interest in integrity-labelled projects, and a maturing offtake market that is beginning to attract institutional capital. 

Carbon Market Snapshot Global South

Price developments and liquidity

Although volatility persists, liquidity-weighted prices have started to stabilise across regions. 

Prices per ton, October 2025: 

• Europe: ~$21–22

• Oceania: ~$12

• North America: ~$11.5

• Africa: < $7

• South America: < $5

• Asia: ~ $2.5

Improved Forest Management (IFM) projects continue to reflect an integrity premium, with avoidance projects in Europe reaching ~$60 per ton, and removal projects in Asia averaging ~$23 per ton. 

Price developments in the Global South Vs Global North

Forecasting outlook

AlliedOffsets’ forecasting model suggests that most voluntary carbon reductions and removals between now and 2050 will come from the Global South:

• China and India together represent ~3.4 gigatons of projected reductions/removals.

• Significant contributions are expected from Indonesia (370 Mt), Myanmar (229 Mt), and Cambodia (198 Mt), alongside strong activity in Kenya, Ghana, Algeria, Uganda, South Sudan, and South Africa.

• Article 6 activity continues to grow, with around 25 million tons of authorised credits in circulation.

The model also segments demand across CORSIA, future compliance markets, and SBTi and non-SBTi corporates, reflecting the growing convergence between voluntary and regulatory mechanisms.

Summary 

The webinar underscored how the Global South continues to lead the VCM, not just in project volume, but in market innovation and policy readiness.

From the investment side, Calculus Carbon highlighted how financing structures are evolving to de-risk projects and unlock institutional capital. Examples included:

• Offtake-backed pre-financing for methane-reduction projects in Vietnam under the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM).

• Insurance-wrapped offtake portfolios enabling bank participation in projects such as biochar.

• Equity financing in ARR projects that combine commercial timber revenues with carbon returns to balance risk and impact.

Together, the data and case studies point to a maturing market, one where transparency, integrity, and innovative financial models are laying the groundwork for scalable climate investment across the Global South.

Download Slides Here