By Emily, Commercial & Business Development Manager at AlliedOffsets
Risk is the word of 2025 in the voluntary carbon market (VCM). In my conversations across buyers, investors, traders, and project developers, it’s clear that “risk” isn’t being used in the same narrow way it was just a couple of years ago.
Back in 2023, delivery risk and over crediting sat at the center of all conversations. That focus has now shifted. As the market matures, stakeholders are looking beyond delivery risk alone and asking a wider set of questions about what could shape outcomes, not just whether credits deliver, but how markets, policy, and reputation may affect strategies over time.
This broader view of risk is exactly what we cover in AlliedOffsets' new report, data-driven approaches to managing risk in the VCM, you can access the full report here.
How risk is evolving in the voluntary carbon market (VCM)
What I’m hearing most consistently is that as the market matures, perspectives on risk are broadening with it. More mature companies are entering the VCM and, naturally, they’re more risk conscious. That changes the questions they bring to the table. Instead of viewing risk purely through a delivery lens, they want to understand systemic market dynamics, country level conditions, and reputational exposure.
In practice, this means market risk is rising in consideration. Stakeholders care less about delivery risk in isolation and more about how markets are performing overall. Across the board, a lack of awareness on market movement is increasingly seen as a bigger risk than any single project level issue.
At the same time, while reputational risk factors never went away, they have resurfaced in a more focused way, causing buyers to carry out deeper due diligence. Confidence in procurement now relies on being able to clearly demonstrate the quality and integrity of carbon credits in their portfolio.
Want the full data and findings behind this shift? Read the risk report here
So what does this widening risk landscape look like in practice? Below, I break down the main risk types customers are prioritizing, and how they use our data to manage each one.
What customers are focusing on, and how they use our data
Market & financial risk
Customers want clarity on demand and price performance outlooks, and on how projects perform relative to others in the same methodology or sector. Many of our clients are looking closely at signs of oversupply and saturation, and using our forecasting model to understand how different market outcomes could affect risk.
Policy & country risk
Country level risk is a major part of decision making now. Our customers are using our country policy scores and business friendliness indicators to assess whether investing in a country is viable, where risk is coming from (policy gaps, weak markets, low liquidity), and how regulation affects business potential. This is particularly important for anyone investing into markets, setting up companies, or developing projects.
Customers also use our data to hedge the risk of CORSIA investments not delivering CORSIA-eligible credits, helping them spot where delivery risk is building at the country level and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
Reputational risk
Buyers are leaning on integrity and credibility indicators more than before. They use rating agency inputs, CCP alignment, compliance eligibility, and related markers to reduce reputational exposure and strengthen internal and external confidence in purchases. Buyers are also mitigating reputational risk by assessing how leading competitors in the space are building their portfolios, using that as a benchmark for their own strategies.
Delivery risk (still relevant, but reframed)
Delivery risk remains important, especially for forward-looking strategies, as does the risk of over-crediting. Customers use historical delivery performance across projects, developers, and methodologies as benchmarks, and compare against peers in the same methodology/sub-sector to inform expectations.
Emily’s takeaway
In 2025, risk in the VCM is a connected set of market, policy, reputational, and delivery factors. Market participants are not just trying to avoid risk, they are also trying to understand it earlier and make better-informed decisions using reliable indicators.
That’s the shift I’m seeing every day in customer conversations, and it’s exactly why risk has become the defining conversation in the VCM this year.
See the full analysis behind these trends. Download the report here