By Eduardo, Business Development Representative at AlliedOffsets
Having joined AlliedOffsets a few months ago, this is my first blog, and it feels like a good moment to reflect on how the voluntary carbon market has closed out 2025.
In the time I’ve been at AlliedOffsets, many of the conversations I’ve had with buyers, intermediaries, and market participants closely mirror what our latest data shows: the voluntary carbon market returned to growth in 2025, but it remains on relatively shaky footing as it heads into the new year. After a period of restructuring and reassessment, the market feels more stable, even if confidence remains cautious.
That balance between recovery and restraint sits at the heart of AlliedOffsets’ Voluntary Carbon Markets 2025 Review: Emerging Trends for 2026.
What’s stood out to me so far
One of the clearest signals from 2025 is that activity has become more concentrated. While the number of unique buyers in the market remained broadly flat compared to 2024, both retirements and offtake volumes increased, with 2025 marking a record year for offtakes.
In practical terms, this means the same buyers are purchasing and retiring more credits, rather than the market expanding through a large influx of new participants. Oversupply also remains a structural feature of the VCM, even as growth slows, reinforcing why buyers are being increasingly selective in how they engage.
At the same time, the market continued to shift toward removals. Both technical and nature-based removals captured a higher share of retirements and offtakes in 2025, contributing to the market’s total value exceeding $10bn for the first time since AlliedOffsets began tracking the VCM.
How policy keeps coming into the conversation
Policy and regulatory developments are also playing a growing role in shaping market behaviour. Progress on Article 6, expanding compliance frameworks, and developments around mechanisms such as CORSIA are bringing voluntary and compliance markets closer together, influencing how buyers think about future demand and eligibility.
While supply of eligible credits continued to emerge throughout 2025, it did not do so as quickly as some expected, underlining the importance of understanding where future constraints and opportunities may arise.
My view as we head into 2026
2025 was not a year of rapid expansion for the voluntary carbon market, but it was a year of resilience.
Even from a relatively short time in the role, what stands out is a market that has adjusted after a difficult period. With increased retirements, record offtakes, and early signs of price stabilization, the VCM is entering 2026 with a sense of cautious optimism - a feeling that while challenges remain, the worst may finally be behind it.
For the full data and analysis behind these trends, read the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2025 Review here.