--- title: What is Article 6.4, and how does it affect voluntary carbon credits? description: Explore how Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement impacts voluntary carbon credits, shifting market dynamics and pricing strategies for buyers. image: https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/hubfs/matt-benson-7e6R2UtrRLo-unsplash%20(1)-1.jpg --- [![AlliedOffsets logo](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/hubfs/AlliedOffsets_July2026/images/AlliedOffsets-logo.svg "AlliedOffsets logo")](http://alliedoffsets.com) [![logo](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/hubfs/AlliedOffsets_July2026/images/logo%20(2).svg "logo")](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/) - About - [About](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/about/) - [Clients & Partners](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/clients-partners/) - [Team & Careers](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/team-careers/) - Products - [API: Data Integration](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/api/) - [Dashboard: Carbon Data](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/dashboard/) - [Consulting and Bespoke Offerings](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/consulting-and-bespoke-offerings/) - [Portfolio Monitoring](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/portfolio-monitoring/) - Carbon Data - [Carbon Pricing](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/pricing/) - [Carbon Market Forecasting](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/forecasting/) - [Carbon Policy](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/policy/) - [CDR Data](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/cdr/) - [Buyers](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/buyers/) - Solutions - [Investing in projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/investing-in-projects/) - [Developing projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/developing-projects/) - [Sourcing projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/sourcing-projects/) - [Selling credits](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/selling-credits/) - [Trading credits](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/trading-credits/) - [Market Trends](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/market-trends/) - Insights & Resources - [Reports, webinars & events](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/reports/) - [Newsletter](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/newsletter/) - [Media & Citations](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/media-citations/) - [Contact](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/contact/) - About - [About](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/about/) - [Clients & Partners](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/clients-partners/) - [Team & Careers](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/team-careers/) - Products - [API: Data Integration](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/api/) - [Dashboard: Carbon Data](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/dashboard/) - [Consulting and Bespoke Offerings](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/consulting-and-bespoke-offerings/) - [Portfolio Monitoring](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/portfolio-monitoring/) - Carbon Data - [Carbon Pricing](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/pricing/) - [Carbon Market Forecasting](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/forecasting/) - [Carbon Policy](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/policy/) - [CDR Data](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/cdr/) - [Buyers](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/buyers/) - Solutions - [Investing in projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/investing-in-projects/) - [Developing projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/developing-projects/) - [Sourcing projects](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/sourcing-projects/) - [Selling credits](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/selling-credits/) - [Trading credits](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/trading-credits/) - [Market Trends](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/market-trends/) - Insights & Resources - [Reports, webinars & events](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/reports/) - [Newsletter](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/newsletter/) - [Media & Citations](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/media-citations/) - [Contact](https://staging-wp.alliedoffsets.com/contact/) ![matt-benson-7e6R2UtrRLo-unsplash (1)-1](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/hubfs/matt-benson-7e6R2UtrRLo-unsplash%20(1)-1.jpg) # What is Article 6.4, and how does it affect voluntary carbon credits? - Home - [AlliedOffsets](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com) - What is Article 6.4, and how does it affect voluntary carbon credits? [Max Denniff](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/author/max-denniff) 09/28/2026 [AlliedOffsets Data Updates](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/tag/alliedoffsets-data-updates), [Policy](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/tag/policy) [0 Comments](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6.4-and-how-does-it-affect-voluntary-carbon-credits#postComment) 3 Minutes Article 6.4 is the section of the Paris Agreement that created the [Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/paris-agreement-crediting-mechanism), or PACM: a centralized, UN-governed system for issuing carbon credits that any country can host and any country can buy from. It succeeds the Clean Development Mechanism, the Kyoto-era scheme now being wound down. Most explanations stop there, which is a shame, because the interesting part for voluntary buyers isn't what Article 6.4 creates. It's what the move into it has taken away. Article 6 gives countries two ways to cooperate on their climate targets. Article 6.2 covers bilateral deals between governments, which is where Japan, Switzerland, Singapore and South Korea have been busiest. Article 6.4 is the centralized route, with its own registry, its own methodologies and its own Supervisory Body, issuing units known as A6.4ERs. We've written before about [how the two fit together](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6-and-how-does-it-actually-work), so this piece picks up where that one left off. The mechanism went live in February 2026 with a cookstove program in Myanmar, and the first thing it told the market was about rigour rather than volume: the issuance came in [around 40% below](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/are-article-6-credits-better-than-voluntary-credits) what the same activity would have produced under CDM accounting, because the baseline rules had tightened. The moment that really mattered came four months later. 30th of June 2026 was the deadline for host governments to approve legacy CDM projects transitioning across, and most of them did not make it. [415 of more than 1,500](https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/paris-agreement-crediting-mechanism/CDM_transition/transition-list) applicant projects and programs cleared approval. China and India, between them home to two-thirds of applicants, [backed none of theirs](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2026/07/17/most-zombie-credits-locked-out-of-new-un-carbon-market-after-china-and-india-snub/), and close to three quarters of the field fell away in a single day, left to move onto a voluntary registry, find a domestic compliance scheme, or wind down. ### What that did to voluntary supply The assumption for years was that Article 6.4 would eventually push a wave of cheap legacy credits into the voluntary market. What happened was closer to the reverse. Had every applicant transitioned successfully, [UN estimates](https://unepccc.org/cdm-ji-pipeline/) put the potential volume at more than 900 million credits generated largely under outdated rules, roughly a year of Japan's emissions, and overwhelmingly the kind of cheap avoidance supply buyers had already been backing away from. Most of it will now never reach the market at all. That met a market already moving the same way. AlliedOffsets data shows the [AO500 index](https://alliedoffsets.com/pricing/), which tracks weighted average spot pricing across the 500 most-retired projects, climbing from around $3.50 per ton in early 2024 to roughly $7 by [mid-2026](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/spot-vs-forward-vs-offtake-the-three-ways-carbon-credits-gget-priced), while the supply and demand picture inverted underneath it, issuances down 44% year on year in the first half of 2026, from 156.2 million credits to 108.2 million, against retirements up 4% to the strongest January-to-May figure on record. Article 6.4 didn't cause that, but it has closed off the escape route for a category of credit that was already struggling to justify itself. Does Article 6 replace the voluntary carbon market? No, and the prices explain the relationship better than the policy debate does. The two systems run alongside each other with different buyers and different accounting. A voluntary credit is retired against a company's own claim; an Article 6 credit carries a [corresponding adjustment](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/who-gets-to-count-it-understanding-corresponding-adjustments-under-article-6), so the host country subtracts it from its national account and the buying country can count it toward an NDC or a CORSIA obligation. That adjustment is what the money is for, and the price gradient shows it. In the week of 21-27 September 2026, our pricing data put the liquidity-weighted average at $18.29 for credits aligned to both the first and second phases of CORSIA, against $6.85 for credits with no eligibility at all. Same underlying ton, priced at nearly three times the value on the strength of who is allowed to count it, and for how long. So Article 6 doesn't replace the voluntary market. It adds a second, government-backed definition of a credible credit, and voluntary buyers are increasingly measured against it whether or not they ever buy an authorized credit themselves.  What it means if you're buying? Practically, "is this credit Article 6 aligned?" has become a question for buyers with no compliance obligation at all. A credit with CDM heritage that failed to transition isn't automatically worthless, but it's now a credit you have to explain, and that sits with the buyer rather than the registry. Even among the projects that did clear host approval, the process isn't finished: developers have until the end of 2026 to file further documentation on safeguards and reversal risk, and the Supervisory Body has the final say on who gets in. It's a data problem before it's a procurement one. Authorization status, CORSIA eligibility and Article 6 alignment sit across different registries and government announcements, each moving on its own timetable, and the gap between one tag and another is the gap between a $7 credit and an $18 one. We hold them as credit-level fields against every project we track, next to developer, methodology, issuance history and price, so the eligibility question and the pricing question get answered in the same place rather than three weeks apart. The same fields are available through our API for teams running that screen inside their own systems. The picture will keep moving through the rest of this year. The shift for voluntary buyers is simple enough: questions that used to apply only to compliance credits now apply to everything, and the AO500 spot average is becoming a starting point to price up from rather than the number that describes the whole market. --- #### Tag: [AlliedOffsets Data Updates](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/tag/alliedoffsets-data-updates) [Policy](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/tag/policy) #### Share: - [Follow us on Facebook](http://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6.4-and-how-does-it-affect-voluntary-carbon-credits) - [Follow us on X](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6.4-and-how-does-it-affect-voluntary-carbon-credits&text=What%20is%20Article%206.4,%20and%20how%20does%20it%20affect%20voluntary%20carbon%20credits) - [Follow us on Linkedin](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6.4-and-how-does-it-affect-voluntary-carbon-credits) - [Follow us on Pinterest](http://pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-article-6.4-and-how-does-it-affect-voluntary-carbon-credits&text=What%20is%20Article%206.4,%20and%20how%20does%20it%20affect%20voluntary%20carbon%20credits?description=Article%206.4%20is%20the%20section%20of%20the%20Paris%20Agreement%20that%20created%20the%20Paris%20Agreement%20Crediting%20Mechanism,%20or%20PACM:%20a%20centralized,%20UN-governed%20system%20for%20issuing[...]&media=https://25967738.fs1.hubspotusercontent-eu1.net/hubfs/25967738/matt-benson-7e6R2UtrRLo-unsplash%20%281%29-1.jpg) --- #### [What is the AO500? AlliedOffsets' carbon price index, explained Previous Post](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/what-is-the-ao500-alliedoffsets-carbon-price-index-explained) ### Leave a Reply --- ## Related Posts [Policy](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/tag/policy) [Fundi Maphanga](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/author/fundi-maphanga) 20 July, 2026 #### [Unpacking the EU ETS Reform - 17th July 2026 Analysis](https://blog.alliedoffsets.com/unpacking-the-eu-ets-reform-17th-july-2026-analysis) This analysis was co-authored by Fundi Maphanga (Policy Lead), Maria Benzoni (Project Lead, Custom... 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