With the deadline for CORSIA Phase One compliance approaching, the spotlight on this scheme has intensified. Here's why it matters and how our CORSIA One Pager can give you an overview of what credits are available in the market.
CORSIA: Why Now?
CORSIA eligibility is increasingly recognized as a metric for quality in the VCM. Additionally, CORSIA obliges airline operators flying between 125+ countries to offset their yearly emissions above 2019 levels. However, recent developments, such as the denial of full approval to issue CORSIA Phase One eligible credits to major registries like Verra and Gold Standard, have raised concerns about the ability to meet the required demand for compliance.
Our CORSIA One Pager
In response to the need for clarity, we've put together a comprehensive CORSIA One Pager where we are tracking the latest market evolutions, regulatory updates, credit availability, and pricing dynamics.
Whilst a condensed version is available on Tableau Public here - the full and live iteration can be accessed upon request.
Why Does It Matter?
Our One Pager aims to demystify CORSIA by presenting data in a clear and digestible format. Beyond aiding airline companies obligated to offset for compliance, this resource can be used by other stakeholders in the market. After all, CORSIA's recognition as a quality metric extends beyond aviation, resonating throughout the VCM landscape.
What Do We Cover In Our One Pager?
- CORSIA Compliance Timing Overview: Understand the timeline and requirements for demonstrating compliance with ICAO regulations.
- Credit Mapping: Explore available credits at registry, country, and individual project levels.
- Supply Forecast: Access our estimates of available supply over the next 10 years under different CORSIA approval scenarios.
- Demand Mapping: Gain insights into required demand as per ICAO regulations through different scenario analysis.
- Pricing Dynamics: Track pricing trends between eligible and non-eligible credits over time.
- Broker and Intermediary Information: Access a downloadable section detailing brokers and intermediaries selling eligible credits for different CORSIA phases, facilitating seamless transactions.
What Does The Data Say?
- Price Premium: Historic pricing shows a clear premium for CORSIA Eligible Emission Units, with last estimates for First Phase eligible credits being 37% and 48% higher than Pilot Phase and non-eligible credits respectively.
- Availability Uncertainty: The majority of currently available First Phase credits is under conditional approval (54% of First Phase availability), which means that actual availability can therefore vary between the 7 million credits and a cumulative 75.7 million, depending on ICAO decisions.
- Current Gap in Supply: Considering a forecasted demand between 55 and 120 million credits to comply with First Phase, the VCM needs to supply an extra 49 to 113 million fully authorised credits over the next 3.5 years to give airline operators the possibility to comply with CORSIA.
As the countdown to CORSIA Phase One compliance accelerates, having access to accurate and up-to-date information has never been more important. Our CORSIA One Pager can support you to stay up to date with the latest market trends and developments.