News & Insights

Key Trends in the U.S. Voluntary Carbon Market

Written by Josefin Nordahl | Sep 16, 2025 9:08:23 AM

​​New York Climate Week is one of the most important gatherings for the global voluntary carbon market (VCM). Every year, leaders from across the world come together to share insights, and discuss the interventions shaping the future of carbon markets. As conversations around carbon removal, integrity, and scaling voluntary markets dominate the agenda, the U.S. remains a key player. 

But where does the U.S. carbon market stand today? Here’s a snapshot of the latest data and trends from AlliedOffsets.

 

 

The State of the U.S. Voluntary Carbon Market

  • Over 2,300 projects are currently active in the U.S. voluntary carbon market.
  • Around 30% of these projects are removals, spanning both technical solutions (like DAC and BECCS) and nature-based projects (such as reforestation). 
  • Co-benefits: More than half of all projects report at least one co-benefit, reflecting the growing demand for projects that deliver climate impact alongside social and environmental benefits. 
  • Carbon Dioxide Removal: Over 400 Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) developers are active in the U.S., highlighting the country’s pivotal role in scaling technical removals globally.

Top Carbon Buyers by Sector: United States

Technology and energy and aviation sectors dominate U.S. carbon credit purchases to date. 

Top Carbon Buyers by Sector in the United States (data from August 2025).

 

Average Monthly Carbon Prices: United states 

Weighted average prices for U.S. carbon credits have been volatile over the past two years. In early 2025, prices surged sharply, dipped in July, and are now rising again.

 

Average monthly carbon prices in the United States (data from August 2025).

 

CDR Prices by Methodology: United States 

In terms of technical removal project prices in the United States, OAE (Ocean Alkaline Enhancement) is currently at the top with an average cost of $1.1k compared to the global average for the same methodology of $892 (data from August 2025). 

 

This chart includes removal carbon projects (data from August 2025).

 

Policy Background 

In January 2025, President Trump initiated the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, raising concerns about the future of the VCM, which had been bolstered by commitments under the agreement. This is expected to have several direct impacts: primarily on the voluntary carbon market (VCM), and on the implementation of CORSIA, with direct considerations for participating airlines flying into and outside of US airspace.

The United States has seen a sharp decline in its overall policy score under Trump's tenure. The country's Political Commitment and Policy Processes scores have been downgraded, due to the repeal of clean energy subsidies, withdrawal from international climate change frameworks. VCM Performance scores have fluctuated due to price variations in credits paid. Higher credit prices are driven by Nature Based Removal (NBS) activities recorded post-April 2025, resulting in a short increase in the country's overall policy score.

Early 2025 analysis shows that withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has had a marginal impact on VCM transactions from US-based projects.

For more information on the Trump administration’s impact on the carbon market, please get in touch.

 

Forecast Examples for the US (Medium Growth Scenario) 

Sharp increase in revenue generated from existing and future projects after 2044 can be noticed in the United States. AlliedOffsets data shows that this is primarily coming from Afforestation and Reforestation/IFM, DAC and Mangrove projects.

The U.S. voluntary carbon market is growing rapidly, with over 2,300 projects, 400+ CDR developers. Many U.S. projects include additional social or environmental benefits, reflecting the growing demand for carbon credits that deliver impact beyond emissions reductions.

Volatile prices, evolving policies, and diverse buyer behavior make data-driven decisions essential for developers and investors in this market. AlliedOffsets provides the insights and tools needed to benchmark prices, identify buyers, and assess market risks. 

For more information about our country level carbon data and policy analysis, please get in touch with our team!

Or if you are heading to NY Climate Week, let us know and we can arrange a coffee or pint meet up!